Predicting Half-Yearly Accounting Income Numbers With Statistical Models

Prediction of half-yearly accounting income numbers has an important role in investment analysis, credit ratings, budgeting, auditing and other areas of the accounting and finance profession. This study provides the Australian evidence on two issues: the statistical relationship between half-yearly accounting income numbers such as earnings per share, net profit and sales; and the ability of statistical models to predict these numbers. The study finds that the best way to predict the next period's half-yearly accounting income numbers is to use the immediately preceding half-yearly income number, and for inflation-adjusted sales the corresponding previous half-yearly figures, or to use a statistical model based on the immediately preceding half-yearly figure adjusted by a statistically based "smoothing constant".     

Patents, knowledge spillovers, and entrepreneurship

We develop an endogenous-growth model in which we distinguish between inventors and innovators. This distinction implies that stronger protection of intellectual property rights has an inverted U-shaped effect on economic growth. Intellectual property rights protection attributes part of the rents of commercial exploitation to the inventor that would otherwise accrue to the entrepreneur. Stronger patent protection will therefore increase the incentive to do research and development (R&D) and generate new knowledge. This new knowledge has a positive effect on entrepreneurship, innovation, and growth. However, after some point, further strengthening of patent protection will reduce the returns to entrepreneurship sufficiently to reduce the overall growth rate.     

Entrepreneurship,institutional economics,and economic growth: an ecosystem perspective

We analyze conceptually and in an empirical counterpart the relationship between economic growth, factor inputs, institutions, and entrepreneurship. In particular, we investigate whether entrepreneurship and institutions, in combination in an ecosystem, can be viewed as a “missing link” in an aggregate production function analysis of cross-country differences in economic growth. To do this, we build on the concept of National Systems of Entrepreneurship (NSE) as resource allocation systems that combine institutions and human agency into an interdependent system of complementarities. We explore the empirical relevance of these ideas using data from a representative global survey and institutional sources for 46 countries over the period 2002–2011. We find support for the role of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in economic growth.     

Do Independent Directors Add Value?

The Australian Stock Exchange's Principles of Good Corporate Governance and Best Practice Recommendations require all listed companies that do not have a majority of independent directors to explain their reasons. We show that independent (outside) directors seem to add value only where their firms have substantial amounts invested in growth options. In these circumstances, outside directors add significant value in their first year on the board and where they have at least three other board positions.     

Editors' introduction

Small Business Economics -     

Venture capital‐backed and commitments test entity initial public offerings on the ASX

This paper examines initial returns to venture capital (VC) backed and non‐VC‐backed IPO companies on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). We find support for the theoretical predictions of Rossetto (2008), by providing empirical evidence that VC‐backed CTE IPOs exhibit greater wealth losses to pre‐IPO investors compared to non‐VC‐backed CTE IPOs during hot issue markets. We also find that greater retained ownership increases IPO underpricing. In the subsample of IPOs with below the median level of retained ownership IPOs, VC‐backed CTE IPOs and VC‐backed, non‐CTE IPOs have significantly higher levels of underpricing and wealth loss compared to non‐VC‐backed, non‐CTE IPOs.     

The Association Between Gender-Diverse Compensation Committees and CEO Compensation

In this paper we investigate whether independent directors’ attendance at board meetings enhances investor protection using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that independent directors’ attendance alleviates tunneling. This effect is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) than in state-owned enterprises. The reinforcement of external supervision substitutes for the role of independent directors’ attendance and this substitution effect is more significant in non-SOEs. Together, these results imply that independent directors’ attendance at board meetings can play an important role in protecting investors, especially in non-SOEs and when external supervision is weak. This paper sheds new light on independent directors’ function in corporate governance, and has implications for institutional improvements.     

Does Generation Matter to Entrepreneurship? Four Generations of Entrepreneurs

This study for the first time addresses generation effects on eight entrepreneur types across four U.S. generations: Traditionalists, Boomers, Gen‐Xers, and Millennials. It adopts hierarchical age‐period‐cohort (HAPC) models using multilevel mixed‐effects logistic regression models with random period effect controls and the same‐age comparison between two neighboring generations. The empirical study relies on monthly Current Population Survey data across 11 years (2006–2016). When controlling for age, period, path dependency, seasonality, and other demographic and socioeconomic factors, no generational differences are identified for workers' entrepreneur propensity, mirroring entrepreneurs' misfits; for entrepreneur‐type propensities, limited generation differences are identified: the odds for Gen‐Xers to be novice (vs. non‐novice) entrepreneurs are 10% higher than Boomers for the ages of 44 and 51; the odds for Boomers to be opportunity (vs. necessity) entrepreneurs are 2.3 times higher than Traditionalists for the ages 63–70. The limited generational difference is consistent with prior literature using HAPC.